A phase-transition model for the rise and collapse of ancient civilizations: A pre-ceramic Andean case study

For ancient civilizations, the shift from disorder to organized urban settlements is viewed as a phase-transition simile. The number of monumental constructions, assumed to be a signature of civilization processes, corresponds to the order parameter, and effective connectivity becomes related to the control parameter. Based on parameter estimations from archaeological and paleo-climatological data, this study analyzes the rise and fall of the ancient Caral civilization on the South Pacific coast during a period of small ENSO fluctuations (approximately 4500 BP). Other examples considered include civilizations on Easter Island and the Maya Lowlands. This work considers a typical nonlinear third order evolution equation and numerical simulations.