Aeronautical emissions in Colombia: An assessment of past and future budgets

The aviation sector has experienced rapid growth in the last decade, raising environmental concerns. This study assessed the contribution of aeronautical emissions in Colombia from 2010 to 2023 and projected their evolution until 2030 using the IPCC Tier 3A methodology and an ARIMA model. Emissions for carbon dioxide (CO₂), Nitrogen oxides (NO_X), Carbon monoxide (CO), Sulfur oxides (SO_X), Hydrocarbons (HC), and Particulate Matter (PM) were estimated based on fuel consumption. Results show that the Climb-Cruise-Descent (CCD) cycle accounts for approximately 70 % of fuel consumption and the majority of CO₂ and NOx emissions. At the same time, Colombia's mitigation strategies have primarily focused on the Take-off and Landing (LTO) cycle. Projections indicate a 30 % increase in emissions over the next decade, highlighting the need for more ambitious policies. Measures such as promoting Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) and improving air traffic management appear insufficient to curb emissions growth and align with Colombia's climate commitments under the Paris Agreement.